When Will Humanity Meet the Virus that is Better than Us?

Humans are just like a virus. Invasive. Destructive. Relentless. And totally dedicated to neutralizing any and all threats so we can dominate the planet. Or perhaps not “so we can dominate the planet” but that is the inevitable result of our growth. Our spread. Our dominance. We have already eliminated all threats to our growth and expansion across planet earth and since reaching that point of dominance, have been systematically encroaching on, domesticating or eliminating other fauna around us. Whether they are a threat to us or not. Just like a virus.

Now we have a challenger in COVID-19. A virus so insidious and dangerous it can survive on surfaces for days. Or is it weeks? We don’t know yet. We do know it is airborne so it will spread through the air around us. Most concerning is its covert nature, laying dormant in an infected human for up to 2 weeks before the host shows any symptoms. Again, we don’t yet know if is it longer. That means an infected person essentially walks around spreading the virus quite effectively before showing anyone knows they are sick. This is especially problematic in the 21st century when humans travel so often and cover great distances.

I recall reading or hearing somewhere that the Spanish Flu killed something like 3 million people when it spread across the globe in 1918. That seemed like a shockingly high number of deaths. And given the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on the financial markets, let alone the hoarding of toilet paper from Costco, at a time when we have seen somewhere over 150,000 infected (110,000 with the virus and approximately 60,000 cleared or cured of it) and 3,800 deaths. Thinking I should check that huge number of 3 million deaths due to Spanish Flu I found the following on Wikipedia:

“The 1918 influenza pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920; colloquially known as Spanish Flu) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus, with the second being the Swine Flu in 2009. The Spanish Flu infected 500 million people around the world, or about 27% of the then world population of between 1.8 and 1.9 billion, including people on isolated Pacific islands and in the Arctic. The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

50 million people dead. And and 500 million infected, fully more than a quarter of humanity. Given the level of record-keeping 100 years ago it is regularly speculated that number is actually more than double. Over 100 million people killed by a virus. That is more than the 16 million people killed in all of WWI. It was so effective at spreading through the human population that the Spanish Flu killed more people in 24 weeks than HIV/AIDS killed in 24 years. However, the Black Death killed a much higher percentage of the world’s then smaller population.

A variety of factors contributed to the broad transmission of that particular strain of H1N1 flu virus across the globe at that time. These included the movement of troops at the tail end of WWI that helped carry the virus from North America to Europe and beyond. The slow movement of information also contributed not to mention a much earlier understanding of cleanliness, quarantine and disease prevention methods. In fact, we call it the Spanish Flu not because it originated in Spain but because it was understood Spain was particularly hard hit by the virus. The truth is that England, France, the USA and other countries imposed wartime media controls over the reporting of the spread of the virus to reduce panic in the broader population. Spain, which was a neutral country in WWI, did not impose those restrictions so the more accurate reporting of the spread of the virus in Spain made it seem as if conditions were far worse in that country. The truth became known only years later as the infection rates and death toll were calculated but by then the perception of Spain’s elevated contagion was set in the public’s mind. And Spanish Flu it will forever be known as.

Today, the media would appear to work the other way around, stirring concern and reaction essentially in real-time as information travels at light speed. When a fact is known in Wuhan, it is immediately available everywhere without having to be described, written up, published in a newspaper and slowly disseminated. Of course, the world had radio back then but those receivers were not quite as prevalent then as a mobile phone is today. It wasn’t until the 1920’s that radio really took off reaching 60% of households in the mid-1930’s according to Wikipedia. That is fare short of the ubiquity of cellphones today.

Importantly, the Spanish Flu attacked in waves. Taking hold initially in January 1918, during the height of “flu season”, that virus spread its highly infectious and easily transmitted strain broadly, and quickly. But the sun, warmth, vitamin D and fresh air of the summer slowed its progress and humanity felt like it had control going into the summer of 1918. And that is when it did its greatest damage. With the Fall and the onset of flu season once again, the Spanish Flu killed more people in the month of October 1918 than at any other time.

For those of us battling COVID-19 in the early 20th century, that is a lesson to be learned. We should expect positive developments into the summer, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. A rally in the same stock markets that have been so ravaged by the spread of the virus today is likely to arrive with the appearance of a victory over COVID-19 this summer. That may be the time to move into cash. And gold.